j1m0ne's blog

If you’re a new seiyuu fan and are not familiar with the Seiyuu Awards, then you can read back my rage posts from the last few years that detailed all the corporate back-scratching that went on. Needless to say I’m tired and bored of the whole thing, yet I will always find time to dissect the evidence, to read between the very thin lines and to draw biased conclusions.

In time, you learn that…
1. certain people will never ever win because they are signed to the ‘wrong’ agency.
2. in short, corporate muscle pays off pays off more than actual talent and merit
3. they tend to pick people with the ‘right’ criteria (good looks, existing fanbase) cos they need to sell DVDs and postcard sets… oh wait, they didn’t sell any last year thanks to the backlash. Instead the goods was replaced by a wave of TV & media publicity…
4. repeat winners are so very awesome!

I think I’m just a very bitter, very jaded person xD Anyway, advance warning – the rest of this post is totally tl;dr

Suspicion Arising Already
To my amusement, the website has now taken off the list of companies providing ‘co-operation’ for the awards –> refer to the Google cache page from a couple of weeks ago that shows them in full. Instead they’ve replaced it with a laughable 協賛 – アニメ・声優関連メーカー/学校 他 (Cooperation – Anime & Seiyuu-related makers/schools & others). Haha so much for hoping for transparency, it’s getting murkier by the day. Anyway, the main list of companies involved follows.

Joint Sponsorship: Tokyo Anime Center, Kadokawa Shoten, Shogakukan, Shueisha, Bunka Hosou, NPO

Special Support: Dwango

Co-operation
AMG (Amusement Media Sogo Gakuin)
ESP Musical Academy Performance Village/ESP Entertainment
Nihon Kogakuin
Koebu.com
Toho Gakuen
Tokyo Animation College
Tokyo Media Academy (TMA) / Tokyo Announce Academy (TAA)
Human Academy
Tokyo Animation College / Osaka Animation College
Aniplex
Toho
Banpresto
Pony Canyon
Bunka Gakuin

The list hasn’t changed too much over the last few years bar the addition of Aniplex/Sony and the removal of Avex and VAP.

The Case of Kadokawa and Aniplex
On 2channel, the Seiyuu Awards thread is not-so-jokingly titled [Aniplex] Seiyuu Awards Discussion Thread #xx. It used to be called the [Kadokawa] Seiyuu Awards thread [JOQR, AMG]. All these organisations and companies have a vested interest in the awards, so making sure their charges win is commonplace by now.

It would be wrong to assume that K-ON! will automatically assume the mantle of ‘most likely award winner’ as past Kyoto Animation projects Haruhi and Lucky Star did – the big difference here being that K-ON! is a Houbunsha property and not Kadokawa like the other two… Kadokawa’s biggest title this year was the second coming of Haruhi (which just kept on coming) while Shogakukan properties include Hayate no Gotoku! and Cross Game.

And Aniplex… oh Aniplex. They only came into the Seiyuu Awards game last year but I’ll leave it to you to decide whether it was a coincidence or not that ALL 10 seiyuu winners happened to have been involved with at least one Aniplex production.

Here’s a helpful list of last year’s winner and their Aniplex connection:
Best Male: Kamiya Hiroshi [Natsume Yujincho]
Best Female: Kugimiya Rie [Gintama]
Best Supporting Male: Inoue Kazuhiko [Natsume Yujincho], Sugita Tomokazu [Gintama]
Best Supporting Female: Endo Aya [Sekirei], Sawashiro Miyuki [Kannagi]
Best New Male: Okamoto Nobuhiko [Persona], Kaji Yuki [Kuroshitsuji]
Best New Female: Asumi Kana [Hidamari Sketch], Tomatsu Haruka [Kannagi]

Top 5 Best-Selling Aniplex series on DVD in 2008: Gintama, Natsume Yujincho, Kannagi, Hidamari Sketch x365, Sekirei

Please tell me I’m being anal. Does anyone really believe part of the reason Kugyu won last year was because of (snort) Nabari no Ou?

For the record, Aniplex’s 2009 productions are: Fullmetal Alchemist, Bakemonogatari, Higepiyo, Guin Saga, Valkyria Chronicles, Kuroshitsuji (cour-2), Zoku Natsume Yujincho, DARKER THAN BLACK: Ryusei no Gemini and Miracle Train.

OK, basics out of the way. Onto the nominations and predictions.

So I am going to (partly) attempt to predict the winners of the Fourth Seiyuu Awards, though my success rate last year was pretty low (3 correct). Partly I’ll talk about the seiyuu that have been impressing me throughout the year – I’ve also been doing a bit more homework looking at past winning patterns so maybe I’ll improve at reading the committee’s movements, or so I hope.

Best Male Seiyuu in Leading Role
A dire category this year, helped little by the fact that (perhaps) some 80% of anime made nowadays has a squealing loli as the lead character. And of the few lead male characters that existed in 2008/09, striking off those that:
1) were harem leads, requiring little acting skill beyond moaning & whimpering like they’d never seen a naked boob before
2) voiced by female seiyuu (hello Elric brothers)
and it leaves you with a few desperate choices.

Ono Daisuke is the name that has been coming up most frequently on bulletin boards discussing potential winners – he has a few things going for him and would represent an ‘ideal’ pick for the committee. Ono.D’s turn as Sebastian in Aniplex’s Kuroshitsuji (yes I know it’s last year, does that matter?) is his trump card with the Kadokawa-related Munto a spare and that should ensure he seals the prize. There was also a decent performance in Umineko as Battler but I don’t think anyone would be watching out for that.

If not Ono then who? Kamiya Hiroshi would get my seal of approval for his roles in Bakemonogatari, Zan.SZS and Zoku Natsume Yujincho, but just maybe the committee will decide against giving him yet another prize after last year’s double victory.

The very versatile Namikawa Daisuke is someone I rate very highly, it’s rather unfortunate that Hetalia is unlikely to be on anyone’s radar when it comes to awards – I quite liked his portrayal of the hapless Pastaboy. Sugita Tomokazu and Irino Miyu were names I desperately threw in due to lack of ideas – the former is a committee favourite and the latter has had the most number of lead roles in 2009 but neither is particularly worthy of winning, in my humble opinion.
Who I want to win: Namikawa Daisuke
Who I think will win: Ono Daisuke

Best Female Seiyuu in Leading Role

This is always a tough category to call and despite just saying that female characters/seiyuu dominate the industry, I find it hard to think of any clear-cut, ‘obvious’ choice for the award. My personal favourite performance this year is Saito Chiwa’s Senjougahara from Bakemonogatari and if the awards were based on merit then she would win at a canter, but sadly things don’t quite work that way.

Sawashiro Miyuki’s win in the supporting category last year sets her up nicely for a main gong, if she had any case for a win that is. She was thoroughly outshone in CANAAN by at least 6 other seiyuu and but Tegami Bachi’s Lag Seeing may just do the job, plus the lack of absolute competition may work in her favour. I’m quite sure they won’t give it to Kugimiya Rie again (in spite of Hayate and FMA) so another option could be Shiraishi Ryoko. It’s a long call, but she’s on an award-friendly agency (Aoni) and has a younger, fresher image that may appeal to the committee.

Tomatsu Haruka? Too early for her to step up to the leading role prize methinks. Having said that, Cross Game’s Aoba is a very mature, strong performance and deserves recognition – I get the feeling she may get relegated to a supporting award. After 3 empty years, I was resigned to the fact that Inoue Marina was unlikely to ever truimph – if she cannot win for Yoko or Kyoko, then how could she win for weaker cases like Alicia or Jessica? Then I remembered that Valkyria is an Aniplex show and she may have a slim shot at the crown after all. I certainly wouldn’t mind a Marina win, think how good she looks/works with Ono D!

Yes, I’m also stupidly keeping in mind that the two main prize winners (best male & female) will have to do a live interview on AniSpa immediately after the awards ceremony – so I’m a little eeeek if Miyuki wins, any radio show that involves her can turn rather uncomfortable with her tendency to say the wrong things at the wrong times. Also, I wouldn’t entirely rule out Paku Romi at the moment – she has Higepiyo and FMA on her side but at the moment I’d still go for the safe choice of Sawashiro Miyuki.
Who I want to win: Saito Chiwa
Who I think will win: Sawashiro Miyuki

Best Male Seiyuu in Supporting Role

The ever-so-consistent (and some say boring) Sakurai Takahiro is top of my picks, his masterful performances in Bakemonogatari (Oshino) and Cross Game (Azuma) this year present a strong case for consideration. There is that unfortunate cloud of controversy over his plagiarism case a couple of years ago that refuses to dissipate, and it would be a terrible shame if his good work goes unrecognised because of past misdeeds. Sakurai’s Medicine Seller from Mononoke was one of the best individual pieces of voice work in recent years and yet he won nothing so there’s a danger that he won’t be even thought of as a potential winner.

Fukuyama Jun on the other hand ticks a lot of the right boxes and the supporting prize is something he’s not yet gotten, so I would hugely favour him this year – Leopard (SoraKake) by itself is legendary enough. As good as Nakata Jouji and Yasumoto Hiroki are, they’re never going to win. Hell if Wakamoto Norio can’t get within a barge pole’s distance of an award, those two aren’t ever either.

Ishida Akira’s chances may be spoiled by the fact that he’s won the same prize in 2007. There’s a lot of unpredictability over the supporting awards anyhow, so I probably won’t be too surprised if they throw in somebody random like Fujiwara Keiji, Miyano Mamoru, Hamada Kenji or Kakihara Tetsuya.
Who I want to win: Sakurai Takahiro, Fukuyama Jun
Who I think will win: Sakurai Takahiro, Fukuyama Jun

Best Female Seiyuu in Supporting Role

It has been one heck of a year for Horie Yui on many levels – playing two nights at the Budokan, new album, new single etc etc. What has been more impressive however, is her voice work. 2009 has seen Hocchan adding many colourful characters to her arsenal, from the yuri-crazy Haruka in Kanamemo to adorably moe Kyapten in Saki and the more conventional Tsubasa in Bakemonogatari – and they’re all side characters. The list doesn’t just end there though; we’ve also got Maria in Umineko, Ryoko in Aoi Hana, Namiko in GA Arts Design, Fatina in Druaga and Urin in Umimonogatari. Gosh, Yui stands out so much this year I’ll be quite bitter if the committee can’t find a way to award her.

Tanaka Rie is another favoured pick of mine – her turn as the crazed Liang Qi in CANAAN meant she easily stole the spotlight from the two protagonists of the show. I would vote for her based on that alone, but Saki-nee in Hatsukoi Limited. is also pretty damn awesome. Not sure the committee gives awards to people not signed to any discernibly famous agency though.

Ito Shizuka is yet another personal favourite but I’m thinking that there’s more chance of Saiga Mitsuki winning a Best Male Seiyuu award than Shizuka ever getting anything. I am uneasy over the prospect of Kato Emiri (Hachikuji in Bakemonogatari) winning one of the two awards. Let’s just say I’m crossing my fingers and praying hard that it doesn’t happen. If not Hanazawa Kana then Tomatsu Haruka please? Even if she doesn’t appear to deserve one for anything – I mean, Kugyu won this award for Hayate two years ago ffs. Logic never applies when it comes to the Seiyuu Awards.
Who I want to win: Horie Yui, Tanaka Rie
Who I think will win: Horie Yui, Tomatsu Haruka

Best New Male

Well. Against all logic, Maeno Tomoaki did not receive a gong last year so if he’s blanked out again it’d be a travesty. He has all the right connections (AMG etc) and a stronger case for 2009 than last year, so I would be completely befuddled if the committee overlooked Maeno. Saku in Sora no Manimani, Toya in WHITE ALBUM II and Kiyokazu in Kobato! should hopefully see him pick up an award. Hopefully.

The other choice is a laugh, I honestly cannot come up with any plausible possibilities so it’s likely they’ll just pull a name out of someone’s ass. Taking into consideration the laughable criteria of having debuted within the last 5 years and the dearth of obvious choices I’d go for Terashima Takuma. Can’t say I recall too much of his voice acting ability apart from a lot of screaming in Sousei no Aquarion, though Takuma does have a permanent place in seiyuu folklore for being the unfortunate victim of Kano Yui’s stupidity (she mistakenly posted a mobile phone text about ‘cute’ girls meant for Terashima on her blog instead). Not that the incident will win him any sympathy awards.

Unfortunately, the alternatives are thin on the ground – well there’s just Abe Atsushi (Touma in Index, Akiyuki in Xam’d). He might snatch the award away from Terashima if the committee are paying enough attention, you never know. KENN? Surely not, he’s more of a singer than a seiyuu…. right?
Who I want to win: Maeno Tomoaki, Abe Atsushi
Who I think will win: Maeno Tomoaki, Terashima Takuma

Best New Female

Tomatsu Haruka’s win last year has cleared the path for Toyosaki Aki to bag one of the two awards and she should do, ahead of her other as-yet unhonoured Music Ray’n stablemates Takagaki Ayahi and Kotobuki Minako – one of this trio seems certain to clinch an award. In terms of talent and visibility Toyosaki represents a better choice than the other two – like it or hate it, her Yui in K-ON! was one of the most enduring characters and voices of 2009 (but thankfully not the Saimoe champion) and one that won’t be forgotten in a hurry. Aki appears to specialise in dojikko/loli/moe airhead blobs (think Minami-ke, Kanamemo etc) and though she does truly excel at it, there’s more to her skills than that – maybe she’s not as varied as Tomatsu, but there’s certainly plenty more to come from her.

My other tip is Ito Kanae, who had a decent shout at an award last year but didn’t get anything. This year, she returns with a CV that’s been strengthened with more seasons of Cool & Spicy and new turns as the leads Koume in Taisho Yakyu Musume and Mihoshi in Sora no Manimani as well as playing a major part in the currently airing Toaru Kagaku no Railgun as Saten. A nobody when plucked from obscurity to lead the line in Shugo Chara! in 2007, Kanae has a naturally cute voice befitting of her tiny 147cm frame and generally excels at roles that require sugary sweetness such as the aforementioned Shugo Chara’s Amu and Taiyaki’s Koume. Like Toyosaki, she has plenty of other tricks up her sleeve that you wouldn’t expect and you can hear one of them with the deeper, more mature voice she uses for Saten Ruiko in the currently airing Toaru Kagaku no Railgun. Also, her status as an AMG graduate will help.

Hanazawa Kana has been impressive over the last few years but won’t get a look in as she’s at Osawa, who clearly aren’t playing ball with the awards – that has sadly meant that people like Noto Mamiko, Kawasumi Ayako and Nakata Jouji have been locked out. Kana may have a better shot at an acting prize than the newcomer ones.

Hayami Saori also doesn’t present a watertight case as yet – give her a few more years and more roles and we’ll see. Same goes for the K-ON! duo of Hikasa Yoko and Sato Satomi, their achievements still pale in comparison to the names above although they’re slowly getting there.
Who I want to win: Ito Kanae, Toyosaki Aki
Who I think will win: Ito Kanae, Toyosaki Aki

Best Personality

I honestly have no idea with this one anymore. Having been a Tamura Yukari supporter from day 1, I will keep voting for her until she wins the bloody thing. Alright alright, maybe since Kamiya won a double award last year Ono Daisuke might pull off the same trick. Or they could just hand it to Fukuyama Jun, he’s not won this one yet either…
Who I want to win: Tamura Yukari
Who I think will win: Seppuku Kuro Usagi

Best Singer

I’d say the K-ON! girls are a lock for the prize with Pony Canyon’s involvement, which is fair enough – both the Cagayake! GIRLS and Don’t say “lazy singles shifted huge numbers, as did the related character singles and soundtrack CDs. Don’t think much of either the OP or ED themes, but there’s no competition around anyhow so Toyosaki Aki could (and should) pick up two awards this year… and hey, you never know. If Sony win the corporation war and somehow Sphere miraculously end up ‘best singer(s)’ [HAHAHAHA] then Aki would still have two awards. What’s the chances of Mizuki Nana or Hirano Aya or Chihara Minori winning? Close to zero (or so I try to console myself in advance).
Who I want to win: Nobody in particular
Who I think will win: K-ON! girls

That’s me done with the awards for this year, check back in March 2010 to see me get every prediction spectacularly wrong. I am an economist after all, y’know – those people who’ll tell you tomorrow why what they predicted yesterday didn’t happen today